The rules-based world trade order is fracturing — and India needs a strategy. In this episode, we sit down with Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative and veteran of India's Trade Service, to make sense of what's happening in global trade and what it means for India.
In this episode we explore:
How Trump's tariffs reshaped the global order — and why every major economy (except China) surrendered
The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and what it means for India's ongoing US trade deal negotiations
Section 301 investigations: naked bullying or legitimate trade pressure?
India's energy sovereignty dilemma — should we have continued buying Russian oil?
Why India's trade agreements are peripheral — and what actually drives export competitiveness
The product gap: why India excels at assembly but falls short on deep manufacturing
China's $110B+ trade surplus with India — a problem of low exports, not high imports
WTO's slow death and the shift toward coalition-based trade rules
What India must do: reverse engineering, anchor firms, and plug-and-play industrial clusters
This conversation spans India's trade history from the pre-liberalisation era to today — and makes the case that trade deals are the periphery; the real battle is product development and industrial depth.
Chapters:
0:00 – Intro & teaser highlights
0:48 – The fracturing of the rules-based trade order
1:56 – Guest intro: Ajit Singh (GTRI)
3:16 – Trump's biggest contribution to trade literacy
4:32 – Why every major economy surrendered to Trump
6:45 – India's strategy in a fragmented world
9:23 – Recap: One year of Trump tariffs
15:42 – India's sovereignty dilemma: Russian oil & the US trade deal
20:32 – India's FTAs: 23 agreements and what they actually achieve
28:20 – Trade deals are peripheral — product quality is what matters
37:05 – India–China trade: $110B deficit explained
40:48 – What India must prioritise to become competitive
45:38 – The WTO: history, decline, and uncertain future
52:46 – Inside a trade negotiation: what really happens in the room